Intermarket Analysis Euro / Dollar, Oil, Gold
Article hours ended on 31/10/2007 11:06
Euro / Dollar
In the medium is about 1.49. We get the height of the projected figure of wedge (Spring 2006-September 2007) from the exit point of last September (about 1396). At the same break-out, Bollinger bands have given a buy signal for confirmation. Despite the significant levels of overbought on Slow Stochastic and RSI, there is no signs of reversal of any kind, even the candlesticks. Any recovery in the greenback could only come from corrections coming from commodities. We analyze this in mind the weekly charts of oil and gold.
Euro / Dollar:
Resistors: (1.44) -1.49
Media (1.44) - 1428-1406
Euro / dollar weekly
Oil (future continuous on Reuters CLC1)
ideas come interesting by the oscillators. The weekly RSI is the highest since October 2004: then, after a short time, There was a significant correction (of about $ 55 to 40). The stochastic is in overbought, but has not yet shown signs of sale. If the input is known, would not be neglected, because it has shown good reliability in the past (though not always follow the corrections were intense). The MACD is at record levels. The prices are hovering around $ 89, this level is very important, and is obtained from the flag formed in September on a daily (78.50/84). The next resistance is the psychological threshold of $ 100. In summary, we can say without doubt that the rise in the course is very "pulled" it seems plausible to settle down too hard. Short-term support is $ 84, but if this correction is known, we will go up to 78.50. This level has considerable significance: if it were, we can expect new increases in the coming months, if not, a neutral phase and descent will be the most likely scenario. Considering that only panic can raise the prices over $ 100, we are more likely to settle down with these target $ 78.50.
Oil Resistance: (89) - 100
Media: (89) - 84 - 78.50
Weekly Petroleum
Gold
quotations are in the vicinity of $ 780 per ounce. This is our primary goal, achieved the height of the triangle formed between May and December 2006. The considerations of the oscillators are similar to those made for oil. However, the situation is less extreme, especially on the MACD. Moreover, it seems that gold is more "accustomed" to living with overbought oscillators, than they are oil prices. Above $ 780 becomes very difficult to locate targets. We may venture a reply (in percentage terms) of the bullish movement from mid-2005 ($ 450) in May 2006 (730). It should be noted, inter alia, that the relationship between 730 and 450 is 1.62 (golden section)! Applying this proportion to the starting point 670, we get an ambitious target of 1085. We should remain cautious. In the absence of sensational events that affect the market, we believe much more likely than corrections from current levels to rise again.
Gold Resistors: 780 - 1085
Support: 750 - 730.37 - 690
Conclusion In conclusion, we believe that the likely prices of gold and oil Stornino from current levels. This could cause a reflection of strengthening dollar, with 1406 target. Only below 1385 we could talk about real reversal of a trend that continues to favor the euro.
Euro / Dollar
In the medium is about 1.49. We get the height of the projected figure of wedge (Spring 2006-September 2007) from the exit point of last September (about 1396). At the same break-out, Bollinger bands have given a buy signal for confirmation. Despite the significant levels of overbought on Slow Stochastic and RSI, there is no signs of reversal of any kind, even the candlesticks. Any recovery in the greenback could only come from corrections coming from commodities. We analyze this in mind the weekly charts of oil and gold.
Euro / Dollar:
Resistors: (1.44) -1.49
Media (1.44) - 1428-1406
Euro / dollar weekly
Oil (future continuous on Reuters CLC1)
ideas come interesting by the oscillators. The weekly RSI is the highest since October 2004: then, after a short time, There was a significant correction (of about $ 55 to 40). The stochastic is in overbought, but has not yet shown signs of sale. If the input is known, would not be neglected, because it has shown good reliability in the past (though not always follow the corrections were intense). The MACD is at record levels. The prices are hovering around $ 89, this level is very important, and is obtained from the flag formed in September on a daily (78.50/84). The next resistance is the psychological threshold of $ 100. In summary, we can say without doubt that the rise in the course is very "pulled" it seems plausible to settle down too hard. Short-term support is $ 84, but if this correction is known, we will go up to 78.50. This level has considerable significance: if it were, we can expect new increases in the coming months, if not, a neutral phase and descent will be the most likely scenario. Considering that only panic can raise the prices over $ 100, we are more likely to settle down with these target $ 78.50.
Oil Resistance: (89) - 100
Media: (89) - 84 - 78.50
Weekly Petroleum
Gold
quotations are in the vicinity of $ 780 per ounce. This is our primary goal, achieved the height of the triangle formed between May and December 2006. The considerations of the oscillators are similar to those made for oil. However, the situation is less extreme, especially on the MACD. Moreover, it seems that gold is more "accustomed" to living with overbought oscillators, than they are oil prices. Above $ 780 becomes very difficult to locate targets. We may venture a reply (in percentage terms) of the bullish movement from mid-2005 ($ 450) in May 2006 (730). It should be noted, inter alia, that the relationship between 730 and 450 is 1.62 (golden section)! Applying this proportion to the starting point 670, we get an ambitious target of 1085. We should remain cautious. In the absence of sensational events that affect the market, we believe much more likely than corrections from current levels to rise again.
Gold Resistors: 780 - 1085
Support: 750 - 730.37 - 690
Conclusion In conclusion, we believe that the likely prices of gold and oil Stornino from current levels. This could cause a reflection of strengthening dollar, with 1406 target. Only below 1385 we could talk about real reversal of a trend that continues to favor the euro.
